2025 Oscar Predictions
We don't know who will win Best Picture! That's exciting!
This has been a wacky Oscar year. For a large chunk of award season, there never seemed to be a clear frontrunner. Then, over one weekend, Anora scooped up the Producers Guild Award and the Directors Guild Award, which made it seem like the inevitable choice. Then BAFTA went another direction and chose Conclave as Best Picture with the Screen Actors Guild awarding the film Best Ensemble. That means on Oscar night, there’s a solid chance either of these movies could take home Best Picture.
I’m laying out my predictions below for all 23 categories along with who I think deserves to win. Note: I’m only putting in “Should Win” if I’ve seen all of the nominees in a category.
Best Picture
Will Win: Anora
Should Win: Nickel Boys
My main hedge against Conclave winning Best Picture is the lack of a Best Director nomination for Edward Berger. While it is possible to nab the Best Picture Oscar without a directing nomination (Argo is the most recent example), it’s rare, and I think it tilts the Academy’s favor slightly in favor of Anora. I certainly won’t be mad if either of these movies wins, but I think when it comes to the Best Picture nominees, Nickel Boys is a towering work whose award prospects were limited because Amazon never ran a great campaign. Nevertheless, I believe more people will come to discover RaMell Ross’ incredible movie in the years to come.
Best Director
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Should Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Without Berger in the Best Director race, this one seems pretty clear-cut. Corbet could pull an upset, but I think Anora is not only popular, but also firmly in line with the movies Baker has always made, so it’s a way for the Academy to award not only the film but a distinctive filmmaker. While I think the scope and audacity of The Brutalist makes it an astounding work of direction (especially when you consider it’s only Corbet’s third movie), I’m not going to be upset if Baker takes home the Oscar.
Best Actor
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Up until the SAG Awards, I was leaning towards Adrien Brody for The Brutalist, but the SAG win tips things slightly in Chalamet’s favor. He has the heavyweight Searchlight Pictures in his corner, a SAG win in his pocket, and while A24 can win awards (as they did a couple of years ago with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale), I have a feeling the Academy will want to recognize Chalamet with his first Oscar for playing an icon rather than a second Oscar for Brody. It also doesn’t hurt that Chalamet hustled in promoting the movie and making himself affable and visible. All that being said, I think Colman Domingo is far more deserving than either Chalamet or Brody, but A24 kind of bailed on Sing Sing, so here we are.
Best Actress
Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Should Win: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
There’s the possibility that enough love for Anora powers Mikey Madison to a Best Actress win. But Moore’s storyline has been so good this season and the Academy likes to see these kinds of veterans persevere and keep turning in interesting work. While Mubi may not have the biggest footprint as a distributor, the fact that they’re even in the competition for Best Actress, Best Picture, Best Director, and more shows that The Substance connected with members whether they’re into body horror or not. While I liked Torres’ performance slightly more, I’ll be cheering with everyone else if Moore wins the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Should Win: Yura Borisov, Anora
Culkin has this sewn up. It’s a great performance, he’s a charming presence when winning, and no one else in the category has come up as competition. I suppose there’s an outside chance Edward Norton could nab it for A Complete Unknown, but for that to happen, the film would have to have a better night than it’s had all awards season. I prefer Yura Borisov because I love how quiet his performance is in Anora, but quiet performances rarely receive much love from Academy voters.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Should Win: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
While I’m not a fan of Emilia Pérez, it’s difficult to begrudge Saldaña her win. She’s good in the movie and she also happens to be the only actor to feature in all three of the three highest-grossing movies of all time. When you consider how easily it is to get buried by VFX in an Avatar or Avengers movie, I like that the Academy will recognize Saldaña for her acting ability. I am a bit surprised Jones hasn’t been a bigger part of the awards conversation given how much the second half of The Brutalist relies on her performance.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Should Win: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield, Sing Sing
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Should Win: Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David, September 5
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist
Should Win: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Paul Tazewell, Wicked
Should Win: Paul Tazewell, Wicked
Best Editing
Will Win: Nick Emerson, Conclave
Should Win: David Jancso, The Brutalist
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance
Should Win: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance
Best Production Design
Will Win: Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales, Wicked
Should Win: Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia, The Brutalist
Best Score
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
Should Win: Volker Bertelmann, Conclave
Best Song
Will Win: “El Mal”, Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Best Sound
Will Win: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: The Wild Robot
Best International Feature
Will Win: I’m Still Here
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Porcelain War
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Yuck!
(I know I said a few days ago I thought Beautiful Men would win this, but now I’m leaning towards Yuck! because that’s where a majority of the experts are)
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Best Live-Action Short
Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
